If America were to use defense treaties as a deterrent, would China respond the same way as it did in the past, or differently?
If America were to use defense treaties as a deterrent, would China respond the same way as it did in the past, or differently?
Responses
My thinking is no, they would not respond in the same way. Consider the difference from an economic perspective. The Chinese economy is much stronger and more technologically adept then when Mao was in charge. The adage of Deng Xiaoping of " hide your strength and bide your time", is at hand, the window for aggressive successful action is closing. The Chinese population is declining, the recent blow up of the real estate market has yet to take a full hold on the country and the costs to rectify this problem is growing. The recent development of A.I. chips has created and advantage for western companies to date, a fact not lost on Communist leadership. Taking Taiwan has become an imperative for Xi, its taking would solidify Chinese dominance in the western Pacific, enhance its technological prowess and make it easier to control trade traffic in the south China sea. The wild card here is Japan, which considers Taiwan part of the outer chain of islands important to its national security. Also its aggressive actions against the Philippines regarding resupply efforts for a ship in the Henderson shoals area and the militarization of other shoals for planes and anti-ship missiles is a clear indication of Chinese intent in the area. For these reasons I believe that China will behave differently